FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTAL VALLEYS FROM THE QUEENSLAND BORDER TO TAREE FOR THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology New South Wales

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTAL VALLEYS FROM THE QUEENSLAND BORDER TO TAREE FOR THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Issued at 11:52 am EST on Wednesday 29 April 2015

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Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding along all rivers and creeks within a nominated valley and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

Onshore winds and rain will increase as a trough deepens off the northern NSW coast on Thursday and Friday. Another East Coast Low is expected to form within this trough on Saturday near the QLD border before moving south to be offshore of the Mid North Coast on Sunday. The northern half of the coast (Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers) will receive the heaviest rain with multi-day falls of 150-200mm, locally 350+mm from Wednesday night to Saturday. Friday and Saturday will see the heaviest widespread falls.

At this stage there is a greater than 70% chance of flooding in the following river valleys developing during Friday and Saturday:

1. Tweed River valley - moderate to major flooding

2. Brunswick River valley - moderate to major flooding

3. Richmond and Wilsons River valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Clarence River Valley, including the Orara River - minor to moderate flooding

5. Coffs Harbour - minor to moderate flooding

6. Bellinger and Kalang River valley - moderate to major flooding

7. Nambucca River valley - moderate to major flooding

8. Macleay River valley - minor to moderate flooding

9. Hastings River valley - minor to moderate flooding

10. Camden Haven valley - minor to moderate flooding

11. Manning River Valley, including Gloucester - minor to moderate flooding

There is still the possibility of renewed flooding in the Hunter Valley (including the Paterson and Williams Rivers) on Sunday and Monday. This will be reviewed on Thursday based on the latest information.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. Across NSW over 70% of Flood Watches are followed by flooding within the catchment.

FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately.

Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecast see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/

Next Issue:

This Flood Watch will be renewed by 11am Thursday morning.

For latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/

Will Far North Coast voters significantly change the composition of the NSW Legislative Assembly tomorrow?

The NSW Legislative Assembly as of 27 March 2015:

Graphic from The Australian 

All members of the Assembly by name (alphabetical order) here.

What is at stake for the NSW North Coast tomorrow?

The ability to protect our:

1. farm land from industrialisation by the gas industry;

2. rivers and water supplies from being depleted and/or contaminated by the mining industry;

3. local economies from the effects of Points 1 & 2;

4. state-owned native forests and remnant forest in private hands from clear fell logging or over clearing due to the current state government's ongoing dismantling of environmental protections;

5. communities and local councils from increases in electricity costs flowing from the proposed removal of high-voltage transmission lines from public ownership for the next 4 generations of North Coast families;

6. older people from loss of affordable services to assist them to live at home in their communities due to the current state government's intention to sell Home Services of NSW to an as yet unidentified multinational company combined with the federal government's increased cost to clients of federal home care services including Meals-On-Wheels;

7. TAFE colleges from further teaching cuts so that young people are able to train across a wide range of trades and professions;

8. local legal aid services from further funding cuts through state imposed efficiency and other ‘savings’;

9. regional state government agencies from closure or downsizing so that job losses don’t become entrenched;

10. our local governments from eventually being turned into one large super council reaching from the NSW-Qld border down into the Great Southern Lakes region; and

11. families, villages, towns, and farming communities from local state MPs who have stopped fighting on our behalf or never even began to effectively represent their electorates in the NSW Parliament.

NSW State Election 2015: The Nationals must be worried that the Far North Coast might kick over the traces at the ballot box

First it was NSW North Coast Nationals who were sprung trying to increase their chances at the ballot box on Saturday by rather dubious means.

The Northern Star editorial on 24 March 2015:

The Northern Star has been used by the Nationals for electioneering purposes and I'd like to set the record straight for our readers.

There's an attack ad doing the rounds with the line that The Northern Star agrees Labor is full of 'hot air on CSG'.

In the television version of the advertisement, there is even a copy of an article written by our reporter Helen Hawkes. It appears below a headline with the same sort of line in it.

But that headline, quoted out of context from the article beneath, does not convey the true meaning of the story.

It was basically a yarn about Labor's political foes, most notably the Nationals, criticising Labor leader Luke Foley's announcement of a moratorium on CSG in NSW.

In effect the headline summed up that that Nationals and Greens were sceptical of Labor's call for a moratorium.

That view doesn't come with the ringing endorsement of The Northern Star as we have been striving to be fair and impartial in our coverage of the CSG issue.

My own personal view is that Labor's moratorium is like having an each-way bet at the races.

It's neither having a plan to introduce CSG, which the Nationals have been plugging, nor a ban on mining as the Greens want to do.

Moratoriums are only good for fence sitters who can't make up their mind.

Labor has further promised a permanent ban on CSG on the North Coast.

The waters have been muddied sufficiently on CSG with Labor and the Coalition blaming each other for its implementation.

I'd simply urge our readers to make up their own minds and vote accordingly on election day this Saturday.

Then it was the Catholic hierarchy in the Lismore diocese attempting to influence parishioners’ votes as though it was still 1950s Australia.

The Northern Star 24 March 2015:

PARENTS of local Catholic school students have received a State Election guide in school newsletters emailed to them.

It is understood some parents have lodged objections with their schools about the appropriateness of being sent a "form guide".

The guide includes information on where the three major parties stand on "abortion and protection of the unborn", euthanasia, marriage, Catholic schools and religious freedom, and has previously been inserted into Catholic church bulletins.

The guide features a foreword by Bishop of Lismore Geoffrey Jarrett, in which he said: "This is the moment to cast our vote and, for us Christians, it means a vote in accordance with our conscience: that's a conscience tuned to the deepest truths, among other things the dignity of the human person, their right to religious freedom, the preciousness of life, marriage and the family, and the rights of parents to educate their children in a way that respects their religious and moral beliefs".

"Apparently there is a saturation campaign being conducted," said Neville Kelly, a Ballina resident and Labor party member who was among parishioners who objected to what they saw as an infringement of democratic rights.

"As a Catholic, I abhor this disgusting behaviour."

The principal of St Mary's Catholic College in Casino, Aaron Beach, said parents had received election information from the diocese in the past.

"We have had no feedback either way," he said. "I don't have any concerns with putting out anything from the bishop - it is his prerogative to give information."…..

So how much money did political parties raise in the eight months leading up to the 2015 state election in NSW?

During the eight months leading up to the NSW state election on 28 March 2015, the main political parties were in fund raising mode as set out in the mandatory disclosure of political donations for that period:

Australian Labor Party NSW raised $1,043,516.58

NSW Country Labor raised $31,700

National Party of Australia NSW raised $170,902.18

The Greens raised $129,414.08

Christian Democratic Party raised $92,417.29

Shooters & Fishers Party NSW raised $42,645

Liberal Party of Australia NSW raised an amount that was not totalled in its disclosure of political donations. However as listed donations ran to 44 full pages (compared to Labor’s 15 pages) and, most of these were for sums $1,000 and over, I would suggest that this party raised the largest amount of all the political parties.

In the Clarence electorate the sitting Nationals MP raised zero dollars, as did the Nationals MP for Lismore, the outgoing Nationals MP for Ballina and the Nationals MP for Tweed – so it appears any money being spent on NSW North Coast campaigning is coming straight from head office in Sydney.

Interested political tragics can go to adp.elections.nsw.gov.au for the disclosures of all the registered political parties in New South Wales.

CSIRO updated climate change projections for Australian - east coast zone covering NSW North Coast

CSIRO Climate Change Projections 2015

EAST COAST SOUTH PROJECTION SUMMARIES

RAINFALL

Decreases in winter rainfall are projected with medium confidence. Other changes are possible but unclear. On annual and decadal basis, natural variability in the climate system can act to either mask or enhance any long-term human induced trend, particularly in the next 20 years…..

TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS

…..There is very high confidence in continued substantial increases in projected mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in line with our understanding of the effect of further increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.

For the near future (2030), the annually averaged warming across all emission scenarios is projected to be around 0.5 to 1.3 °C above the climate of 1986–2005.

By late in the century (2090), for a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) the projected range of warming is 2.9 to 4.6 °C. Under an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) the projected warming is 1.3 to 2.5 °C.

EXTREME TEMPERATURE

More hot days and warm spells are projected with very high confidence. Fewer frosts are projected with high confidence.

Extreme temperatures are projected to increase at a similar rate to mean temperature, with a substantial increase in the temperature reached on hot days, the frequency of hot days, and the duration of warm spells (very high confidence).

Frost risk days (minimum temperatures under 2 °C) are expected to decrease across the cluster (high confidence).

Some areas could experience around two to three times the average number of days above 35 °C under intermediate emission scenarios by late in the century.

EXTREME RAINFALL & DROUGHT

Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected, with high confidence.

Understanding of the physical processes that cause extreme rainfall, coupled with modelled projections, indicate with high confidence a future increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events, although the magnitude of the increases cannot be confidently projected.

Time spent in drought is projected, with medium confidence, to increase over the course of the century.

MARINE & COAST

Mean sea level will continue to rise and height of extreme sea-level events will also increase (very high confidence).

For 1966 to 2009, the average rate of relative sea-level rise for Australia, from observations along the coast, was 1.4 mm/year.

There is very high confidence in future sea-level rise. By 2030 the projected range of sea-level rise for the cluster coastline is 0.09 to 0.19 m above the 1986–2005 level, with only minor differences between emission scenarios. As the century progresses, projections are sensitive to concentration pathways. By 2090, the intermediate emissions case (RCP4.5) is associated with a rise of 0.30 to 0.65 m and the high emissions case (RCP8.5) a rise of 0.45 to 0.88 m. Under certain circumstances, sea-level rises higher than these may occur.

Late in the century warming of the East Coast coastal waters poses a significant threat to the marine environment through biological changes in marine species, including local abundance, community structure, and enhanced coral bleaching risk. Sea surface temperature is projected to increase in the range of 2.8 to 5.7 °C by 2090 under a high scenario (RCP8.5). The sea will also become more acidic, with acidification proportional to emissions growth.

OTHER

A harsher fire-weather climate in the future.

FIRE WEATHER: There is high confidence that climate change will result in a harsher fire-weather climate in the future. However, there is low confidence in the magnitude of that change because of the significant uncertainties in the rainfall projection.

EVAPORATION: Potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase in all seasons as warming progresses (high confidence).

HUMIDITY: There is little change in relative humidity for the near future, but medium confidence in a decrease later in the century.

 East Coast Cluster Report (2.7 MB)

Before you start to cry copious tears for Community Housing Limited on the NSW North Coast......

Mainstream media on the NSW North Coast reported that Community Housing Limited had lost its NSW Land & Environment Court bid for rates exemption on its 1,368 properties in this state.

On its website the company asserts it is a registered charity. However, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission lists it as a public benevolent institution and the court decided that the company failed to prove it was a charity in its presented arguments.

In its Concise Annual Report 2014 Community Housing Limited stated:

At 30 June 2014 CHL had a portfolio of 4,309 properties under rental management in Australia across six States including Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania. Internationally in Timor Leste, Chile, and India….

Results for year

Total revenue and other income of the Economic Entity is $70,842,035 (2013: $88,406,634).

Total Members Funds are $315,033,844 (2013: $303,983,086). Net surplus for the year amounted to $11,050,758 (2013:$39,630,760)….

In 2014 the company had a surplus of over $11.1 million, total rental income of over $36.6 million and paid no income tax.

In Australia its combined grant and incentive income in 2014 was over $17.7 million.

In the Coffs Harbour area the company appears to have taken possession of 180 Coffs Harbour public housing properties (a mix of one & two bedroom units) in 2011, with the state government contributing a one-off payment of around $1.5 million and the company making a contribution of around $1 million to required property upgrades.

In the Clarence Valley it has fourteen housing properties (a mix of units, townhouses and houses) in Grafton funded by federal, state and local government in the form of land contribution, discounted land sale, capital grants and National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) as well as a loan taken out by the housing company.

These appear to be typical profiles of how this company funds its affordable housing expansion.

So the bottom line in all this is that a comfortably cashed-up international housing company (which already gets considerable assistance from all three tiers of Australian government) wanted more and didn’t get it.

Forgive me, if I cannot see why it shouldn’t pay its council rates, particularly in regional New South Wales where net surpluses running into many millions are rarely found in in local government coffers.

How hot will it get on the NSW North Coast between now and 2079?

The NSW Dept. of Environment and Heritage has posted Climate Projection for NSW on its website.

These projections include a; Change in number of days a year max temp > 35ºC Hots days are projected to increase across the state by an average of 9 days per year by 2030. There are significant spatial differences across the state. The greatest increases are seen in the west of the region during summer and spring with an additional 10-20 days by 2030. The Great Dividing Range is not projected to experience any significant increases.

A summary of climate change predictions for the NSW North Coast and maps of projected changes in the region's maximum & minimum temperature, rainfall, and future forest fire risk can be found here.

This map shows the change in mean number of days over 35ºC on the North Coast from 1990 up to 2020-2039:

By 2060-2079 the map will look like this:

The NBN roll out debacle continues on the NSW North Coast

This is what NBN Co said in its May 2014 Fixed Wireless and Satellite Review: Final Report about the planned 'fast' broadband roll-out in regional areas:

The challenges of geography and population density mean that outside of city centres, NBN Co has planned a combination of interwoven fixed line, fixed wireless and satellite technologies.

Over ~600 fixed line 'islands' are located in high density areas outside major capitals, such as major country towns.

This Review focuses on areas outside those fixed line 'islands', which are to be served by either fixed wireless or satellite.

Based on the best currently available data the Review estimates there will be ~1,020,000 premises in the non-fixed line footprint by 2021, being ~8 percent of the then total of 12.7 million premises.

NBN Co's fixed wireless network uses TD-LTE technology, with current specifications designed for the 2.3GHz spectrum band.

To completely cover a geographic area, NBN Co needs more towers than a notional radius and typical mobile network operator (MNO) grid suggest because although towers have a theoretical range of ~14km, line-of-sight (LOS) is required to all premises.

On average, each tower is only able to reach about 20 percent of the area within that 14km radius.

The specific location of towers is a critical decision and moving them as little as a few hundred metres can make a large difference to the number of premises they can reach.

NBN Co's satellite program is based around both an interim satellite service and a long term satellite service.

The Interim Satellite Service (ISS) currently in place involves NBN Co leasing capacity from IPSTAR and Optus Satellite.

In the meantime, NBN Co is developing its Long-Term Satellite Service (LTSS) by building two identical satellites to provide broadband services.

Both satellites are scheduled to launch in CY15.

The two satellites will work on the Ka band, a high frequency spectrum particularly suited to telecommunications.

They will cover the entire Australian mainland and islands through 101 dedicated 'spot beams'.

Each satellite beam has a different capacity in terms of maximum bandwidth, which is split across all end-users in the beam, and cannot be changed.

The highest-capacity beam can serve ~15,000 premises, while the 20 lowest capacity beams can serve an average of ~700 premises each.

NBN Co admits that its national fixed wireless network will not have the capacity to meet expected demand in seven year’s time, with around 200,000 of the planned one million premises in the wireless and satellite footprint not able to be served with faster broadband.

 Internet users in the NSW Northern Rivers region will smile cynically when reading fixed wireless details, knowing full well that local topography in the seven local government areas would result in NBN Co having to erect between est. 1,600-1,700 high wireless towers (see example left) with each tower only serving an est. 14km line-of-sight range – and, leaving aside future capacity problems, that still would not guarantee reliable fast wireless broadband coverage to most of the people living on the coastal side of the Great Dividing Range, from the Clarence Valley up to the NSW-Qld border.

So what did NBN Co announce this month?

Why, it is beginning to roll out fixed wireless across the Northern Rivers! Including to the City of Grafton in the Clarence Valley and in the Lismore area.

See here for locations, but readers should be prepare for disappointment ahead of the mouse click.

There will probably be further disappointment if anyone bothers to read Liberal MP for Wentworth and Minister for Communications Malcolm Turnbull’s response to the NBN review report.

* Photograph from ABC News